Use capacity pressure in endpoint ranking

agents/rap-node-agent/cmd/rap-node-agent/main.go

@@ -748,6 +748,37 @@ func (s *vpnFabricSessionDialStats) capacityCountersSnapshot(maxEntries int) []v
 	return values[:maxEntries]
 }
 
+func (s *vpnFabricSessionDialStats) capacityPressureForScoring(maxAge time.Duration) map[string]mesh.EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure {
+	if s == nil {
+		return nil
+	}
+	now := time.Now().UTC()
+	s.capacityMu.Lock()
+	defer s.capacityMu.Unlock()
+	out := make(map[string]mesh.EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure, len(s.capacityByEndpoint))
+	for _, counter := range s.capacityByEndpoint {
+		endpointID := strings.TrimSpace(counter.EndpointID)
+		if endpointID == "" || counter.Count <= 0 {
+			continue
+		}
+		if maxAge > 0 && counter.LastSeenUnixSec > 0 {
+			lastSeen := time.Unix(counter.LastSeenUnixSec, 0).UTC()
+			if now.Sub(lastSeen) > maxAge {
+				continue
+			}
+		}
+		out[endpointID] = mesh.EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure{
+			EndpointID:      endpointID,
+			Count:           counter.Count,
+			LastSeenUnixSec: counter.LastSeenUnixSec,
+		}
+	}
+	if len(out) == 0 {
+		return nil
+	}
+	return out
+}
+
 func (s *vpnFabricSessionDialStats) ObserveAllCandidatesFailed() {
 	if s == nil {
 		return
@@ -5254,12 +5285,18 @@ func vpnFabricSessionTargets(meshState *syntheticMeshState, nextHop string) []me
 	out := make([]mesh.FabricTransportTarget, 0, len(meshState.PeerEndpointCandidates[nextHop])+1)
 	seen := map[string]struct{}{}
 	if candidates := meshState.PeerEndpointCandidates[nextHop]; len(candidates) > 0 {
+		var capacityPressure map[string]mesh.EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure
+		if meshState.VPNFabricSessionDialStats != nil {
+			capacityPressure = meshState.VPNFabricSessionDialStats.capacityPressureForScoring(2 * time.Minute)
+		}
 		ranked := mesh.RankPeerEndpointCandidates(candidates, mesh.EndpointCandidateScoreOptions{
 			ChannelClass:           mesh.SyntheticChannelFabricControl,
 			Now:                    time.Now().UTC(),
 			MaxVerificationAge:     5 * time.Minute,
 			Observations:           mergedEndpointCandidateObservations(meshState.PeerEndpointObservations, meshState.VPNFabricEndpointObservations.Snapshot()),
 			MaxObservationAge:      5 * time.Minute,
+			CapacityPressure:       capacityPressure,
+			MaxCapacityPressureAge: 2 * time.Minute,
 		})
 		for _, item := range ranked {
 			endpoint := strings.TrimRight(strings.TrimSpace(item.Candidate.Address), "/")

agents/rap-node-agent/cmd/rap-node-agent/main_test.go

@@ -1086,6 +1086,47 @@ func TestVPNFabricSessionTargetsUseRemoteHealthObservations(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestVPNFabricSessionTargetsUseCapacityPressureForLoadSpread(t *testing.T) {
+	now := time.Now().UTC()
+	stats := newVPNFabricSessionDialStats()
+	for i := 0; i < 8; i++ {
+		stats.ObserveCapacityLimited(mesh.FabricTransportTarget{
+			EndpointID: "node-b-quic-a",
+			Endpoint:   "quic://node-b-a.example.test:19443",
+			Transport:  "direct_quic",
+		})
+	}
+	targets := vpnFabricSessionTargets(&syntheticMeshState{
+		VPNFabricSessionDialStats: stats,
+		PeerEndpointCandidates: map[string][]mesh.PeerEndpointCandidate{
+			"node-b": {
+				{
+					EndpointID:       "node-b-quic-a",
+					NodeID:           "node-b",
+					Transport:        "direct_quic",
+					Address:          "quic://node-b-a.example.test:19443",
+					Reachability:     "public",
+					ConnectivityMode: "direct",
+					LastVerifiedAt:   &now,
+				},
+				{
+					EndpointID:       "node-b-quic-b",
+					NodeID:           "node-b",
+					Transport:        "direct_quic",
+					Address:          "quic://node-b-b.example.test:19443",
+					Reachability:     "public",
+					ConnectivityMode: "direct",
+					Priority:         5,
+					LastVerifiedAt:   &now,
+				},
+			},
+		},
+	}, "node-b")
+	if len(targets) != 2 || targets[0].EndpointID != "node-b-quic-b" {
+		t.Fatalf("targets did not spread away from pressured endpoint: %+v", targets)
+	}
+}
+
 func TestMergedEndpointCandidateObservationsKeepsNewest(t *testing.T) {
 	now := time.Now().UTC()
 	merged := mergedEndpointCandidateObservations(

agents/rap-node-agent/internal/mesh/endpoint_candidate_scoring.go

@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ type EndpointCandidateScoreOptions struct {
 	MaxVerificationAge     time.Duration
 	Observations           map[string]EndpointCandidateHealthObservation
 	MaxObservationAge      time.Duration
+	CapacityPressure       map[string]EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure
+	MaxCapacityPressureAge time.Duration
 }
 
 type EndpointCandidateHealthObservation struct {
@@ -27,6 +29,12 @@ type EndpointCandidateHealthObservation struct {
 	ObservedAt        time.Time `json:"observed_at,omitempty"`
 }
 
+type EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure struct {
+	EndpointID      string `json:"endpoint_id,omitempty"`
+	Count           int64  `json:"count"`
+	LastSeenUnixSec int64  `json:"last_seen_unix_sec"`
+}
+
 type ScoredPeerEndpointCandidate struct {
 	Candidate PeerEndpointCandidate `json:"candidate"`
 	Score     int                   `json:"score"`
@@ -185,6 +193,11 @@ func scorePeerEndpointCandidate(candidate PeerEndpointCandidate, opts EndpointCa
 		score += observationScore
 		reasons = append(reasons, observationReasons...)
 	}
+	if pressure, ok := opts.CapacityPressure[candidate.EndpointID]; ok {
+		pressureScore, pressureReasons := scoreEndpointCandidateCapacityPressure(pressure, opts)
+		score += pressureScore
+		reasons = append(reasons, pressureReasons...)
+	}
 
 	return ScoredPeerEndpointCandidate{
 		Candidate: candidate,
@@ -193,6 +206,21 @@ func scorePeerEndpointCandidate(candidate PeerEndpointCandidate, opts EndpointCa
 	}
 }
 
+func scoreEndpointCandidateCapacityPressure(pressure EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure, opts EndpointCandidateScoreOptions) (int, []string) {
+	if pressure.Count <= 0 {
+		return 0, nil
+	}
+	if !opts.Now.IsZero() && pressure.LastSeenUnixSec > 0 && opts.MaxCapacityPressureAge > 0 {
+		lastSeen := time.Unix(pressure.LastSeenUnixSec, 0).UTC()
+		age := opts.Now.Sub(lastSeen)
+		if age < 0 || age > opts.MaxCapacityPressureAge {
+			return 0, []string{"capacity:pressure-stale"}
+		}
+	}
+	penalty := boundedInt(int(pressure.Count)*3, 3, 24)
+	return -penalty, []string{"capacity:pressure"}
+}
+
 func scoreEndpointCandidateObservation(observation EndpointCandidateHealthObservation, opts EndpointCandidateScoreOptions) (int, []string) {
 	score := 0
 	reasons := []string{"observation:present"}

agents/rap-node-agent/internal/mesh/endpoint_candidate_scoring_test.go

@@ -387,6 +387,48 @@ func TestRankPeerEndpointCandidatesTreatsCapacityAsSoftPressure(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestRankPeerEndpointCandidatesSpreadsFreshCapacityPressure(t *testing.T) {
+	now := time.Date(2026, 5, 16, 12, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)
+	ranked := RankPeerEndpointCandidates([]PeerEndpointCandidate{
+		{
+			EndpointID:       "node-b-quic-a",
+			NodeID:           "node-b",
+			Transport:        "direct_quic",
+			Address:          "quic://node-b-a.example.test:19443",
+			Reachability:     "public",
+			ConnectivityMode: "direct",
+			LastVerifiedAt:   &now,
+		},
+		{
+			EndpointID:       "node-b-quic-b",
+			NodeID:           "node-b",
+			Transport:        "direct_quic",
+			Address:          "quic://node-b-b.example.test:19443",
+			Reachability:     "public",
+			ConnectivityMode: "direct",
+			Priority:         5,
+			LastVerifiedAt:   &now,
+		},
+	}, EndpointCandidateScoreOptions{
+		Now:                    now,
+		MaxVerificationAge:     time.Minute,
+		MaxCapacityPressureAge: time.Minute,
+		CapacityPressure: map[string]EndpointCandidateCapacityPressure{
+			"node-b-quic-a": {
+				EndpointID:      "node-b-quic-a",
+				Count:           8,
+				LastSeenUnixSec: now.Unix(),
+			},
+		},
+	})
+	if ranked[0].Candidate.EndpointID != "node-b-quic-b" {
+		t.Fatalf("top endpoint = %q, want less pressured endpoint: %+v", ranked[0].Candidate.EndpointID, ranked)
+	}
+	if !containsReason(ranked[1].Reasons, "capacity:pressure") {
+		t.Fatalf("capacity pressure reason missing: %+v", ranked[1].Reasons)
+	}
+}
+
 func containsReason(reasons []string, reason string) bool {
 	for _, item := range reasons {
 		if item == reason {

docs/architecture/DISTRIBUTED_FABRIC_NODE_PROTOCOL_PLAN.md

@@ -377,6 +377,9 @@ observations.
 The same dial telemetry now keeps bounded per-endpoint capacity-pressure
 counters, so operators can see whether stream saturation is occasional or
 concentrated on a specific QUIC carrier.
+Fresh local capacity-pressure counters also feed endpoint ranking as a bounded
+penalty, spreading new fabric sessions away from a saturated carrier without
+declaring that carrier failed.
 Endpoint ranking treats `capacity_limited` observations as a soft pressure
 penalty instead of a hard recent failure, enabling load spreading without
 marking the carrier unhealthy.